Crypto Volatility #8: Magnum Opus

Intro into @crypto_volX Magnum Opus

Apr 30, 2020

This part is all about Magnum Opus.

These are not predictions. These charts are about where we are in between tops & bottoms or accumulation periods & blow-offs. The @crypto_volX index is indifferent to any price action or exchanges volumes.

The best description is - where we are in crypto depression & mania - crypto accumulation or blow-offs. Therefore the charts are most useful at peak fear - the peak depression or peak optimism - the peak mania.

Magnum Opus includes three parts:

Global View - where we are in the long term (4+ years).
Local View - where we are in the shorter term (6 to 18 months).
Experiments - these charts will make sense once battle tested and require more time to develop. Some are very interesting!

THE GLOBAL VIEW

A few charts to tell us how far are we from 2017 peak. As You’ll see - very, very far from it.

01

A1.2H No global peak in sight, all good. The rest is accumulation. Also notice the grey & the red in Q4/2017 in conjunction with price action..

02

C4.1 Same here, no problem. However it will be interesting to watch in next 6-18 months. The black & red in 2017 was a great trigger for getting out.

03

A1.2 This is how it looks like when market goes nuts in Q4/2017. Nothing to see here but accumulation in 2019.

04

H4.1H Nice leading signal in 2017. The @crypto_volX needs to go up & up - no other way in the long term. If it stalls - there is some problem with the market. Either locking gains or - exhaustion & prepping for take off.

05

H1.2 Same here, the only way is up - in the long term. The whole 2018 is interesting as it just grew slowly (accumulation). Fast rise means a potential for blow off (Q3/2019 & Q1/2020). You can look back at this one in 6-12-24 months - it will be going up long term. Until the global peak (see Q4/2017).

06

E3.1 All in all - there is now no need for this kind of charts in 2020 as it all too early - we are very far from the Global peak. This is very detailed one, under the hood - to really time the Global Peak. It’s been all slow accumulation (Q1/2019 & Q4/2019) & eventual blow-offs (Q3/2019). Plus the macro bomb, the virus.

THE LOCAL VIEW

These charts are about - if there is anything from past that applies to future possibilities. Quite interesting!

01

B20.6H See how the @crypto_volX (black) leads in Q1/2019 and starts to top or stall in Q2 - reaching a triple peak before the July 2019. Also see the widespread bottom forming at the end of 2019 - nice accumulation period. Not being for the macro bomb aka the virus..

02

C40.1 The grey @crypto_volX went like a grenade in mid-February 2019 during the bottom. However all eyes are on the black one here!

03

B10.3H The early start in 2019 (January) was a great leading indicator! That also confirmed with the top in June/July 2019. See the grey “hair“ forming a nice bottom in Q4/2019. Dust will settle for 2020, just wait & see.

04

B30.1 Again, same @crypto_volX indicator leading with grey ones lagging nicely. It was a clear signal to get out - in between those two. The bottom in Q4/2019 could not have been wider..

05

H40.1H The accumulation hits off right in January 2019 and the indicators shows a clear sign of taking profits at the peak (@crypto_volX stalls for months afterwards). The next stage is up. There is only one way the indicator can go long term - and that is up. Stalling means taking profits.

06.A

I10.1 This one is interesting. There is only one signal for this @crypto_volX: Sharp rise (mid-February 2019) presses the price action upwards. There is no other thing to see on this chart. See below for 4 years view for further explanation.

06.B

I1.1 As the previous chart showed - there is only one single thing to watch (a sharp rise). On this chart - during the “Q4/2017 peak“ - the opposite happens - the @crypto_volX indicator goes flat. This is the only thing to watch during the global peak or peak mania. The flatlining of @crypto_volX on this one.